Forex Support and Resistance

Support and resistance is one of the most widely used concepts in forex trading. Strangely enough, everyone seems to have their own idea on how you should measure forex support and resistance.

Let’s take a look at the basics first.

Look at the diagram above. As you can see, this zigzag pattern is making its way up (bull market). When the forex market moves up and then pulls back, the highest point reached before it pulled back is now resistance.

As the market continues up again, the lowest point reached before it started back is now support. In this way, resistance and support are continually formed as the forex market oscillates over time. The reverse is true for the downtrend.

Plotting Forex Support and Resistance

One thing to remember is that support and resistance levels are not exact numbers.

Often times you will see a support or resistance level that appears broken, but soon after find out that the market was just testing it. With candlestick charts, these “tests” of support and resistance are usually represented by the candlestick shadows.

Notice how the shadows of the candles tested the 1.4700 support level. At those times it seemed like the market was “breaking” support. In hindsight we can see that the market was merely testing that level.

So how do we truly know if support and resistance was broken?

There is no definite answer to this question. Some argue that a support or resistance level is broken if the market can actually close past that level. However, you will find that this is not always the case.

Let’s take our same example from above and see what happened when the price actually closed past the 1.4700 support level.

In this case, price had closed below the 1.4700 support level but ended up rising back up above it.

If you had believed that this was a real breakout and sold this pair, you would’ve been seriously hurtin’!

Looking at the chart now, you can visually see and come to the conclusion that the support was not actually broken; it is still very much intact and now even stronger.

To help you filter out these false breakouts, you should think of support and resistance more of as “zones” rather than concrete numbers.

One way to help you find these zones is to plot support and resistance on a line chart rather than a candlestick chart. The reason is that line charts only show you the closing price while candlesticks add the extreme highs and lows to the picture.

These highs and lows can be misleading because often times they are just the “knee-jerk” reactions of the market. It’s like when someone is doing something really strange, but when asked about it, he or she simply replies, “Sorry, it’s just a reflex.”

When plotting support and resistance, you don’t want the reflexes of the market. You only want to plot its intentional movements.

Looking at the line chart, you want to plot your support and resistance lines around areas where you can see the price forming several peaks or valleys.

Other interesting tidbits about forex support and resistance:

• When the price passes through resistance, that resistance could potentially become support.
• The more often price tests a level of resistance or support without breaking it, the stronger the area of resistance or support is.
• When a support or resistance level breaks, the strength of the follow-through move depends on how strongly the broken support or resistance had been holding.

With a little practice, you’ll be able to spot potential forex support and resistance areas easily. In the next lesson, we’ll teach you how to trade diagonal support and resistance lines, otherwise known as forex trend lines.

3 Types of Forex Charts and How to Read Them

Let’s take a look at the three most popular types of forex charts:

1. Line chart
2. Bar chart
3. Candlestick chart

Now, we’ll explain each of the forex charts, and let you know what you should know about each of them.

Line Charts

A simple line chart draws a line from one closing price to the next closing price. When strung together with a line, we can see the general price movement of a currency pair over a period of time.

Here is an example of a line chart for EUR/USD:

Bar Charts

A bar chart is a little more complex. It shows the opening and closing prices, as well as the highs and lows. The bottom of the vertical bar indicates the lowest traded price for that time period, while the top of the bar indicates the highest price paid.

The vertical bar itself indicates the currency pair’s trading range as a whole.

The horizontal hash on the left side of the bar is the opening price, and the right-side horizontal hash is the closing price.

Here is an example of a bar chart for EUR/USD:

Take note, throughout our lessons, you will see the word “bar” in reference to a single piece of data on a chart.

A bar is simply one segment of time, whether it is one day, one week, or one hour. When you see the word ‘bar’ going forward, be sure to understand what time frame it is referencing.

Bar charts are also called “OHLC” charts, because they indicate the Open, the High, the Low, and the Close for that particular currency. Here’s an example of a price bar:

Open: The little horizontal line on the left is the opening price

High: The top of the vertical line defines the highest price of the time period

Low: The bottom of the vertical line defines the lowest price of the time period

Close: The little horizontal line on the right is the closing price

Candlesticks Charts

Candlestick charts show the same price information as a bar chart, but in a prettier, graphic format.

Candlestick bars still indicate the high-to-low range with a vertical line.

However, in candlestick charting, the larger block (or body) in the middle indicates the range between the opening and closing prices. Traditionally, if the block in the middle is filled or colored in, then the currency pair closed lower than it opened.

In the following example, the ‘filled color’ is black. For our ‘filled’ blocks, the top of the block is the opening price, and the bottom of the block is the closing price. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, then the block in the middle will be “white” or hollow or unfilled.

Here at BabyPips.com, we don’t like to use the traditional black and white candlesticks. They just look so unappealing. And since we spend so much time looking at charts, we feel it’s easier to look at a chart that’s colored.

A color television is much better than a black and white television, so why not splash some color on those candlestick charts?

We simply substituted green instead of white, and red instead of black. This means that if the price closed higher than it opened, the candlestick would be green.

If the price closed lower than it opened, the candlestick would be red.

In our later lessons, you will see how using green and red candles will allow you to “see” things on the charts much faster, such as uptrend/downtrends and possible reversal points.

For now, just remember that on forex charts, we use red and green candlesticks instead of black and white and we will be using these colors from now on.

Check out these candlesticks…BabyPips.com style! Awww yeeaaah! You know you like that!

Here is an example of a candlestick chart for EUR/USD. Isn’t it pretty?

The purpose of candlestick charting is strictly to serve as a visual aid, since the exact same information appears on an OHLC bar chart. The advantages of candlestick charting are:

• Candlesticks are easy to interpret, and are a good place for beginners to start figuring out forex chart analysis.
• Candlesticks are easy to use! Your eyes adapt almost immediately to the information in the bar notation. Plus, research shows that visuals help with studying, so it might help with trading as well!
• Candlesticks and candlestick patterns have cool names such as the “shooting star,” which helps you to remember what the pattern means.
• Candlesticks are good at identifying market turning points – reversals from an uptrend to a downtrend or a downtrend to an uptrend. You will learn more about this later.

Now that you know why candlesticks are so cool, it’s time to let you know that we will be using candlestick forex charts for most, if not all of forex chart examples on this site.

Sentiment Analysis

Earlier, we said that price action should theoretically reflect all available market information. Unfortunately for us forex traders, it isn’t that simple. The forex markets do not simply reflect all of the information out there because traders will all just act the same way. Of course, that isn’t how things work.

This is why sentiment analysis is important. Each trader has his or her own opinion of why the market is acting the way it does. The market is just like Facebook – it’s a complex network made up of individuals who want to spam our news feeds.

Kidding aside, the market basically represents what all traders – you, Pipcrawler, or Celine from the donut shop – feel about the market. Each trader’s thoughts and opinions, which are expressed through whatever position they take, helps form the overall sentiment of the market regardless of what information is out there.

The problem is that as retail traders, no matter how strongly you feel about a certain trade, you can’t move the forex markets in your favor. Even if you truly believe that the dollar is going to go up, but everyone else is bearish on it, there’s nothing much you can do about it (unless you’re one of the GSs – George Soros or Goldman Sachs!).

As a trader, you have to take all this into consideration. You need to perform sentiment analysis. It’s up to you to gauge how the market is feeling, whether it is bullish or bearish, and you decide how you want to incorporate your perception of market sentiment into your trading strategy. If you choose to simply ignore market sentiment, that’s your choice. But hey, we’re telling you now, it’s your loss!

Being able to gauge market sentiment aka sentiment analysis can be an important tool in your toolbox. Later on in school, we’ll teach you how to analyze currency market sentiment and use it to your advantage, like Jedi mind tricks.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is a way of looking at the forex market by analyzing economic, social, and political forces that may affect the supply and demand of an asset. If you think about it, this makes a whole lot of sense! Just like in your Economics 101 class, it is supply and demand that determines price, or in our case, the currency exchange rate.

Using supply and demand as an indicator of where price could be headed is easy. The hard part is analyzing all of the factors that affect supply and demand.

In other words, you have to look at different factors to determine whose economy is rockin’ like a Taylor Swift song, and whose economy sucks. You have to understand the reasons of why and how certain events like an increase in the unemployment rate affects a country’s economy and monetary policy which ultimately, affects the level of demand for its currency.

The idea behind this type of analysis is that if a country’s current or future economic outlook is good, their currency should strengthen. The better shape a country’s economy is, the more foreign businesses and investors will invest in that country. This results in the need to purchase that country’s currency to obtain those assets.

In a nutshell, this is what fundamental analysis is:

For example, let’s say that the U.S. dollar has been gaining strength because the U.S. economy is improving. As the economy gets better, raising interest rates may be needed to control growth and inflation.

Higher interest rates make dollar-denominated financial assets more attractive. In order to get their hands on these lovely assets, traders and investors have to buy some greenbacks first. As a result, the value of the dollar will likely increase.

Later on in the course, you will learn which economic data points tends to drive currency prices, and why they do so. You will know who the Fed Chairman is and how retail sales data reflects the economy. You’ll be spitting out interest rates like baseball statistics.

But for now, just know that fundamental analysis is a way of analyzing the potential moves of a currency through the strength or weakness of that country’s economic outlook. It’s going to be awesome, we promise!

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the framework in which forex traders study price movement.The theory is that a person can look at historical price movements and determine the current trading conditions and potential price movement.

The main evidence for using technical analysis is that, theoretically, all current market information is reflected in price. If price reflects all the information that is out there, then price action is all one would really need to make a trade.

Now, have you ever heard the old adage, “History tends to repeat itself“?

Well, that’s basically what technical analysis is all about! If a price level held as a key support or resistance in the past, traders will keep an eye out for it and base their trades around that historical price level.

Technical analysts look for similar patterns that have formed in the past, and will form trade ideas believing that price will act the same way that it did before.

In the world of currency trading, when someone says technical analysis, the first thing that comes to mind is a chart. Technical analysts use charts because they are the easiest way to visualize historical data!

You can look at past data to help you spot trends and patterns which could help you find some great trading opportunities.

What’s more is that with all the traders who rely on technical analysis out there, these price patterns and indicator signals tend to become self-fulfilling.

As more and more forex traders look for certain price levels and chart patterns, the more likely that these patterns will manifest themselves in the markets.

You should know though that technical analysis is VERY subjective.

Just because Ralph and Joseph are looking at the exact same currency chart setup or indicators doesn’t mean that they will come up with the same idea of where price may be headed.

The important thing is that you understand the concepts under technical analysis so you won’t get nosebleeds whenever somebody starts talking about Fibonacci, Bollinger bands, or pivot points.

3 Types of Forex Market Analysis

 By now you’ve learned some history about the forex, how it works, what affects the prices, blah blah blah.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

This is all obviously super important, but know that you’re now thinking…

BORING!

SHOW

ME

HOW

TO

MAKE

MONEY

ALREADY!!!!

Well say no more friends because here is where your journey as a forex trader begins…

This is your last chance to turn back…

Take the red pill, forget everything, and we’ll take you back to where you were before.

You can go back to living your average life in your 9-5 job and work for someone else for the rest of your life…

OR…

You can take the green pill, which is fully loaded with the dollar extract, and learn how you can make money for yourself in the most active market in the world, simply by using a little brain power.

Just remember, your education will never stop. Even after you graduate from the School of Pipsology, you must constantly pursue as much knowledge as you can, so that you can become a true FOREX MASTER! The learning never ends!

Are you ready to make that commitment?

Now pop that green pill in, wash it down with some delicious chocolate milk, and grab your lunchbox… the School of Pipsology is now in session!

Note: the green pill was made with a brainwashing serum. You will now obey everything that we tell you to do! Mwuahahaha!

Three Types of Forex Market Analysis

To begin, let’s look at three ways on how you would analyze and develop ideas to trade the market. There are three basic types of forex market analysis:

1. Technical Analysis
2. Fundamental Analysis
3. Sentiment Analysis

There has always been a constant debate as to which analysis is better, but to tell you the truth, you need to know all three.

It’s kind of like standing on a three-legged stool – if one of the legs is weak, the stool will break under your weight and you’ll fall flat on your face. The same holds true in trading. If your analysis on any of the three types of trading is weak and you ignore it, there’s a good chance that it will cause you to lose out on your trade!

How to Open a Forex Trading Account

After finding the right broker for you, you can open a forex trading account in three simple steps:

• Selecting an account type
• Registration
• Activating your account

Before trading a dime of your hard earned money, you may want to think about opening demo account. Actually, open up two or three demos – why not? It’s all FREE! Try out several different brokers to get a feel for the right one for you.

Choosing an Account Type

When you’re ready to open a live account, you have to choose which type of forex trading account you want: a personal account or a business (aka corporate) account.

In the past, when opening a forex trading account, you’d also have to choose whether you wanted to open a “standard” account, a “mini” account, or a “micro” account.

Now, that isn’t much of a problem since most brokers allow you to trade custom lots. This is great for newbie and inexperienced traders who only have a small account of capital. This provides you great flexibility, as you won’t have to trade bigger than you’re comfortable with.

Also, always, always, always remember: Always read the fine print.

Some brokers have a “managed account” option in their application forms. If you want the broker to trade your account for you, you can pick this. But is this what you really want? After all, you didn’t read through the whole School of Pipsology just to have someone else trade for you!

Besides, opening a managed account requires a pretty big minimum deposit, normally $25,000 or higher. Also, the manager will also take a cut out of any profits.

Lastly, make sure you open a forex spot account and not a forwards or futures account.

Registration

You will have to submit paperwork in order to open an account and the forms will vary from broker to broker. They are usually provided in PDF format and can be viewed and printed using Adobe Acrobat Reader program.

Also, make sure you know all the associated costs, like how much your banks charges for a bank wire transfer. You’d be surprised how much these actually costs, and they may actually take up a significant portion of your trading capital.

Account Activation

Once the broker has received all the necessary paperwork, you should receive an email with instructions on completing your account activation. After these steps have been completed, you will receive a final email with your username, password, and instructions on how to fund your account.

So all that’s left is for you to login and start trading. Pretty easy huh?

Time to log in, pop open those charts, and start trading!

But wait just one minute

We strongly advise you DEMO trade first. There’s no shame in demo trading – everyone has to start somewhere.

If you have been demo trading for at LEAST six months, then maybe you can dip your feet into live trading. Even then, we suggest you go in the shallow end and consider how much you want to risk.

Trading live is a different beast altogether. It’s like the difference between sparring against your kid brother (or sister) and fighting Manny Pacquiao.

No matter how successful you were in demo trading, nothing can replace the feeling of having real money on the line.